Monthly Digest – June 2026

Contents

1. CBN Maintains Policy Hold at 26.5%.

2. FX Stability Improves on ₦9.71tn Liquidity Control.

3. Food Inflation Returns as Primary Pressure Driver.

4. Nigeria–UK Trade Rises to £7.6bn.

5. Tax Dispute Reform Goes Digital.

6. Foreign Direct Investment Weakens Despite Reform Momentum.

7. Consumer Lending Expands.

8. Centrum Finance Launches Mobile App.

 

MONETARY POLICY & FINANCIAL SYSTEM STABILITY

CBN MAINTAINS POLICY HOLD AT 26.5%

Inflation pressures keep rates unchanged as MPC sustains tightening stance

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has retained the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.5 per cent following its 305th Monetary Policy Committee meeting in Abuja, reinforcing its commitment to sustaining a tight monetary environment amid persistent inflationary pressures.

The decision was unanimous among committee members, who agreed that current macroeconomic conditions still require a restrictive stance to consolidate recent gains in exchange rate stability and moderate inflation trends. All accompanying monetary parameters were also left unchanged, signalling policy continuity rather than adjustment.

CBN Governor Olayemi Cardoso stated that the committee’s decision was guided by the need to balance inflation containment with economic resilience. According to him, while recent reforms have improved market confidence, inflation remains structurally elevated and requires sustained policy discipline.

Key monetary parameters were maintained as follows:

• Standing Facilities Corridor: +50 / -450 basis points
• Cash Reserve Ratio (Deposit Money Banks): 45%
• Merchant Banks CRR: 16%
• Public sector deposits outside TSA: 75%

The committee also referenced April 2026 inflation data, which showed headline inflation rising to 15.69 per cent from 15.38 per cent in March. This increase reinforced concerns that price stability remains fragile despite monetary tightening over the past year.

The MPC emphasised that future decisions will remain data-dependent, particularly tracking inflation trends, liquidity conditions, and exchange rate behaviour before any easing considerations can be made.

 

FX STABILITY IMPROVES ON ₦9.71TN LIQUIDITY CONTROL

Naira strengthens as aggressive CBN interventions reduce volatility

Nigeria’s foreign exchange market recorded improved stability in April 2026, with the naira appreciating by ₦19.67 against the US dollar to close at an average rate of ₦1,361.51/$.

This marks a notable improvement from ₦1,381.18/$ recorded in March, driven largely by intensified liquidity sterilisation efforts by the Central Bank of Nigeria through Open Market Operations (OMO) totaling ₦9.71 trillion during the month.

The scale of intervention reflects the apex bank’s continued effort to manage excess liquidity in the financial system, reduce speculative pressure in the FX market, and restore confidence in the domestic currency.

Market data showed that FX volatility narrowed significantly during the period, with the naira trading within a tighter band compared to the previous month. Analysts interpret this as an early signal of improved price discovery and reduced panic-driven demand for foreign currency.

Financial analysts also noted that elevated OMO yields continued to attract portfolio inflows into fixed-income securities, improving dollar supply in the domestic economy.

However, sustaining FX stability remains highly dependent on structural inflows, particularly crude oil earnings, remittances, and foreign direct investment, which continue to serve as long-term anchors for currency resilience.

 

INFLATION & COST OF LIVING PRESSURES

FOOD INFLATION RETURNS AS PRIMARY PRESSURE DRIVER

Prices surge across states as household purchasing power weakens

Food inflation re-emerged as a dominant inflation driver in April 2026, rising to 16.06 per cent nationally and surpassing headline inflation of 15.69 per cent for the first time in eight months.

This reversal marks a significant shift in Nigeria’s inflation structure. Between late 2025 and early 2026, non-food components such as transport, energy, and services had largely driven inflationary pressure. However, food prices have now regained dominance due to supply disruptions and rising production costs.

At least 11 states recorded food inflation above 20 per cent, reflecting uneven but widespread pressure across the country. Enugu led with 32.7 per cent, followed by Kwara (30.8 per cent) and Adamawa (30.1 per cent), while several other states including Rivers, Delta, Edo, and Bauchi also recorded elevated figures.

Price increases were driven by staple commodities including yam, beans, garri, tomatoes, pepper, millet, and protein-based food items, all affected by transport costs, insecurity in farming corridors, and weak storage infrastructure.

Rural inflation remained higher than urban inflation at 16.36 per cent versus 15.40 per cent, highlighting deeper structural inefficiencies in food distribution networks and rural market systems.

Beyond domestic inflation data, food security risks are also rising. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) projects that up to 16.99 million Nigerians may require urgent food assistance by late 2026, placing Nigeria among the world’s most vulnerable food-insecure countries.

The report attributes this outlook to persistent insecurity, weak purchasing power, below-average agricultural output, and disrupted food supply chains, particularly in northern Nigeria.

Economists argue that Nigeria’s inflation challenge remains largely structural rather than monetary. Rising energy costs, logistics constraints, and weak infrastructure continue to sustain price pressures despite tight monetary policy.

While inflation has moderated significantly compared to 2025 peaks, analysts warn that this moderation has not yet translated into meaningful relief for households.

 

EXTERNAL SECTOR & TRADE PERFORMANCE

NIGERIA–UK TRADE RISES TO £7.6BN

Crude oil remains dominant export driver despite diversification efforts

Nigeria’s trade relationship with the United Kingdom expanded to £7.6 billion in 2025, supported primarily by strong crude oil exports and sustained energy demand.

Crude oil remained the dominant export, accounting for £719.2 million, followed by refined petroleum products and gas exports. Together, energy exports continue to define Nigeria’s trade structure with the UK.

Total UK imports from Nigeria rose to £2.1 billion, reflecting steady growth in goods exports, while UK exports to Nigeria reached £5.5 billion, driven largely by refined petroleum products, machinery, and consumer goods.

Despite growth in non-oil exports such as cocoa and agricultural commodities, the data reinforces Nigeria’s continued reliance on hydrocarbons as its primary foreign exchange earner.

Analysts note that while trade volumes are increasing, Nigeria’s export diversification remains limited, with oil still accounting for the overwhelming share of foreign earnings.

 

TAX DISPUTE REFORM GOES DIGITAL

 

FG launches free Tax Ombud platform to improve compliance and trust

The Federal Government has introduced a digital Tax Ombud platform to simplify tax dispute resolution and improve transparency in Nigeria’s fiscal administration system.

The platform provides taxpayers with free access to complaint resolution through a website, toll-free call centre, and digital case management system designed to eliminate administrative bottlenecks and reduce dependence on formal litigation.

Officials described the initiative as part of broader tax reforms aimed at strengthening taxpayer protection, improving voluntary compliance, and restoring confidence in the tax system.

The reform is also intended to reposition taxpayers as partners in national development rather than subjects of enforcement, aligning with Nigeria’s wider fiscal modernization agenda.

Experts believe the initiative could significantly reduce delays in tax dispute resolution, particularly for small businesses and individuals who previously faced financial barriers in accessing legal recourse.

 

INVESTMENT & CAPITAL FLOWS

Foreign Direct Investment Weakens Despite Reform Momentum

CBN data reveals continued weakness in long-term capital inflows

Despite ongoing economic reforms aimed at improving investor confidence, Nigeria’s foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows remain subdued, highlighting the gap between improving macroeconomic sentiment and actual long-term capital commitments.

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments data, direct investment inflows declined to approximately $250 million in the first quarter of 2025, down from $310 million in the preceding quarter, representing a decline of about 19 per cent.

The figures suggest that while foreign investors continue to show interest in Nigeria’s market potential, many remain cautious about committing long-term capital to productive sectors of the economy. Direct investment, which typically involves investments in factories, infrastructure, production facilities, and business expansion, remains one of the most important indicators of investor confidence because of its long-term nature and ability to generate employment and economic activity.

Analysts note that recent improvements in exchange rate management, foreign reserve levels, and monetary policy credibility have contributed to a gradual recovery in investor sentiment. However, challenges such as infrastructure deficits, energy supply constraints, regulatory uncertainties, and concerns about the operating environment continue to influence investment decisions.

Recent CBN and capital importation data also indicate that foreign portfolio investment continues to account for a significantly larger share of foreign capital entering the economy. While portfolio inflows provide liquidity and support financial markets, they are generally more volatile and can exit quickly during periods of uncertainty, unlike FDI which creates long-term economic value.

Economic observers argue that sustaining reform implementation, improving infrastructure reliability, strengthening policy consistency, and deepening investor confidence will be critical if Nigeria is to attract larger volumes of productive foreign investment capable of supporting industrialisation, job creation, and long-term economic growth.

 

REAL SECTOR & ECONOMIC GROWTH

Consumer Lending Expands

Personal loans drive growth in household credit

Consumer lending in Nigeria recorded modest growth at the start of 2026, reflecting increased demand for household credit despite prevailing high interest rates and inflationary pressures.

According to the latest Economic Report of the Central Bank of Nigeria, total consumer credit outstanding increased to ₦3.81 trillion in January 2026 from ₦3.78 trillion recorded in December 2025. The growth was driven primarily by increased demand for personal loans, which rose by 5.95 per cent to ₦1.96 trillion.

Personal loans accounted for approximately 51.4 per cent of total consumer credit, underscoring their growing importance in household financing. The increase suggests that many Nigerians continue to rely on credit facilities to manage personal expenses, meet financial obligations, and cushion the effects of rising living costs.

In contrast, retail loans declined by 4.15 per cent to ₦1.85 trillion during the period, representing 48.6 per cent of total consumer credit. The divergence between personal and retail lending highlights changing borrowing patterns among households amid prevailing economic conditions.

The CBN’s Credit Conditions Survey also showed that demand for consumer loans, personal lending facilities, and other household credit products continued to increase as consumers sought additional financing options. Financial institutions reported stronger demand across several categories of household lending during the period.

While the expansion of consumer credit supports financial inclusion and household spending, analysts caution that sustained growth in lending must be balanced with prudent risk management. Rising borrowing costs, inflationary pressures, and weakening disposable incomes continue to pose repayment challenges for some borrowers, making credit quality an important area of focus for lenders and regulators.

Overall, the latest figures indicate that consumer credit remains an important component of economic activity, supporting household consumption while reflecting evolving financial behaviour in a challenging economic environment.

Centrum Finance Launches Mobile App

Digital banking platform expands customer access and convenience

Centrum Finance took a significant step in its digital transformation journey with the official launch of the Centrum Finance Mobile App, designed to provide customers with faster, more convenient, and secure access to financial services.

The launch reflects the institution’s continued commitment to leveraging technology to enhance customer experience, improve service delivery, and provide round-the-clock access to essential financial solutions. Through the mobile application, customers can now manage their accounts more efficiently, access key financial services, and perform transactions from the convenience of their mobile devices.

The introduction of the platform aligns with broader developments within Nigeria’s financial services industry, where digital adoption continues to accelerate amid growing consumer demand for convenience, accessibility, and real-time banking solutions.

The mobile app is expected to improve customer engagement, reduce service turnaround times, and strengthen the institution’s ability to serve a wider customer base across different geographical locations.

Speaking on the launch, management noted that the initiative represents another milestone in Centrum Finance’s ongoing efforts to modernise service delivery and position the institution for the future of digital finance.

The development also supports the company’s broader strategic objective of deepening financial inclusion while providing customers with secure, efficient, and user-friendly channels for managing their financial activities.

As digital transformation continues to reshape the financial sector, the launch of the Centrum Finance Mobile App reinforces the institution’s commitment to innovation, customer-centricity, and sustainable growth.

 

SOURCES: Nariametrics, Businessday, istock images, Shutterstock, Punch newspaper, Reuters, Guardian News, ICIR Nigeria, Premium Times, Leadership News, Vanguard News, Daily Times Nigeria, Linda Ikeji’s Blog, Finance in Africa, Daily Post, Terrapass, Agora Policy.

DISCLAIMER

This publication is produced by Centrum Finance Company Limited solely for the information of users who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on any information or opinions contained herein. The opinions contained in the report should not be interpreted as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy any investment. Whilst every care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted by any member of the Company for actions taken because of the information provided in this publication